🚀 go-pugleaf

I was reading that there is a shortage of wheat seed in Southern
Illinois.  I know lots of people around here are planting wheat.
Usually no one does.

We aren't, but maybe we should be.

Jena

I talked to the grain merchant that sold to when I was farming and it seems
lots of people are following your aunt's strategy. He said the higher the
price the less he is offered. He is not selling any of his stocks either. He
thought he might start shipping some next month. But he may have a million
bushels to move so he can't sell it all on one day.

Late summer rains in Oklahoma look good for wheat and planting intentions
are high.
I haven't paid much attention but I am sure a lot of grain is in the ground
already when they should be just starting unless they are using it for
pasture.

Gordon.
"Larry Caldwell" <lar...@teleport.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.18271495b00f199098a20f@news.earthlink.net...
> The Australian wheat crop is now estimated to be down 53% because of
> drought.  http://www.iht.com/articles/74739.html
>
> Some areas of the USA have also had reduced production because of
> drought.  If you happen to be raising wheat in an area that got good
> rains last year, you might actually make some money for once.
>
> My mother is holding her wheat until after the first of the year, mostly
> for tax reasons, but she may do well with that timing.
>
>
> --
> http://home.teleport.com/~larryc

> I was reading that there is a shortage of wheat seed in Southern
> Illinois.  I know lots of people around here are planting wheat.
> Usually no one does.
>
> We aren't, but maybe we should be.
>

If a lot of people are planting it who usually don't,
doesn't that imply a forthcoming glut?  What do the
people who are suddenly planting wheat USUALLY plant?

In article <3DBEA77B.16E92139@dev.null>, munged@dev.null writes:

> If a lot of people are planting it who usually don't,
> doesn't that imply a forthcoming glut?  What do the
> people who are suddenly planting wheat USUALLY plant?

A lot of farmers around here lucked out.  They grow a lot of ryegrass
seed.  I think 90% of the US supply of grass seed comes from Oregon.
Farmers contract with seed companies to raise specific strains, then
clean, bag and label it for the seed company.  Terms are COD.

Well, the seed companies contracted too much acreage, so the farmers got
stuck with the seed, sitting in their warehouses taking up storage while
not getting paid for their crop.  Some farmers had to wait 2 years before
they could deliver the crop and collect their money.  That hurts.  How
many businesses do you know that could wait 2 years to collect their
annual receipts?

The farmers got peeved at the grass seed companies, and refused to plant
any more grass seed without contractual payment dates and storage
charges.  When the grass seed companies dragged their feet, the farmers
planted wheat instead.  You always knew I was getting around to the
point, didn't you?

It worked out pretty good.  The farmers have wheat to sell during a
market runup, and the grass seed companies are in short supply again and
being a lot more conciliatory about payment dates.

In the Palouse, wheat rotates through with millet and barley.  In other
areas, rotation crops are corn and soybeans.

The crop failure in Australia means the northern hemisphere will be able
to get a crop in and harvested before the southern hemisphere will be
able to respond.  Winter wheat is going in now in Canada, Europe and the
USA, but won't be planted in Australia and Argentina until 6 months from
now.  The Ukraine had a bumper crop of wheat this year, and the wheat
shortage is going to do wonders for their economy.

--
http://home.teleport.com/~larryc

Goedjn <munged@dev.null> wrote in message news:<3DBEA77B.16E92139@dev.null>...
> > I was reading that there is a shortage of wheat seed in Southern
> > Illinois.  I know lots of people around here are planting wheat.
> > Usually no one does.
> >
> > We aren't, but maybe we should be.
> >
>
> If a lot of people are planting it who usually don't,
> doesn't that imply a forthcoming glut?

I would think so.  They say you can't find any wheat seed down in
Southern Illinois.

What do the
> people who are suddenly planting wheat USUALLY plant?

Probably corn and soybeans.  They are either hoping to double crop
their ground or just going with the wheat.  I guess if wheat prices
tank because everyone is planting wheat, then those double croppers
will be praying for those soybeans.

On Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:45:29 +0100, Larry Caldwell wrote:

 The Ukraine had a bumper crop of wheat this year, and the wheat
> shortage is going to do wonders for their economy.
>
Unfortunately there are places on this planet where this kind of logic doesn't
apply!

What do you mean?

"gunnar" <gunnar@no.spam> �������/�������� � �������� ���������:
news:pan.2002.10.29.22.37.54.567695.1185@no.spam...
> On Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:45:29 +0100, Larry Caldwell wrote:
>
>  The Ukraine had a bumper crop of wheat this year, and the wheat
> > shortage is going to do wonders for their economy.
> >
> Unfortunately there are places on this planet where this kind of logic
doesn't
> apply!

In article <apra71$151v$1...@news.kiev.sovam.com>,
Yuriy.A...@marsh.kiev.ua writes:

> What do you mean?

Don't be too upset, Yuriy.  Many people in the USA have no idea what has
been happening in your country.  When they think of Ukrainian wheat, they
think of Nikita Kruschev riding to power on the wheat harvest of the
Ukraine.

The agricultural press here in the USA is very impressed with this year's
wheat crop in the Ukraine.  Harvesting the largest crop in history
indicates that Ukrainian agriculture has made a giant transition to free
market agriculture, at a time when the world badly needs wheat for the
export market.  Because of the drought and crop failure, even the USA
will be importing some wheat this year.

Congratulations to your countrymen on this successful year, and tell them
to enjoy it while it lasts.  The combination of a bumper crop and high
prices only happens two or three times in a lifetime.


> "gunnar" <gunnar@no.spam> �������/�������� � �������� ���������:
> news:pan.2002.10.29.22.37.54.567695.1185@no.spam...
> > On Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:45:29 +0100, Larry Caldwell wrote:
> >
> >  The Ukraine had a bumper crop of wheat this year, and the wheat
> > > shortage is going to do wonders for their economy.
> > >
> > Unfortunately there are places on this planet where this kind of logic
> doesn't
> > apply!
>
>
>

--
http://home.teleport.com/~larryc

Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.182b47ec24cea57398a242@news.earthlink.net...
> In article <apra71$151v$1...@news.kiev.sovam.com>,
> Yuriy.A...@marsh.kiev.ua writes:
>
> > What do you mean?
>
> Don't be too upset, Yuriy.  Many people in the USA have no idea what
has
> been happening in your country.  When they think of Ukrainian wheat,
they
> think of Nikita Kruschev riding to power on the wheat harvest of the
> Ukraine.
>
> The agricultural press here in the USA is very impressed with this
year's
> wheat crop in the Ukraine.  Harvesting the largest crop in history
> indicates that Ukrainian agriculture has made a giant transition to
free
> market agriculture, at a time when the world badly needs wheat for the
> export market.

if it needs wheat so badly why on earth is it so cheap.

 Because of the drought and crop failure, even the USA
> will be importing some wheat this year.

Yes, from the UK because it is cheaper to ship wheat into Carolina from
the UK than buy in Maize from elsewhere in the US.
>
> Congratulations to your countrymen on this successful year, and tell
them
> to enjoy it while it lasts.  The combination of a bumper crop and high
> prices only happens two or three times in a lifetime.

except that the Ukraine isn't getting high prices, they are getting
stitched up good and proper, which is massively undercutting the world
wheat market. I think what is wanted is the Ukranians to get some
organisation behind their marketing to bring that into line with their
skill in growing. That way we would all make more money


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

     'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'

In article <apsb1u$idr$1...@newsg2.svr.pol.co.uk>, j...@freeserve.spam.co.uk
writes:

> if it needs wheat so badly why on earth is it so cheap.

What do you want, Jim?  I just looked up the Portland prices.  #1 hard
red winter wheat is bid $5.45, twice what it was a couple years ago, and
soft white is around $4.65, up $1.30 from last year, with February
futures 10 cents higher.  Most farmers are looking at a net of $150-$250
per acre, depending on yields.  That will pay the mortgage.

--
http://home.teleport.com/~larryc

Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com> writes

>What do you want, Jim?  I just looked up the Portland prices.  #1 hard
>red winter wheat is bid $5.45, twice what it was a couple years ago, and
>soft white is around $4.65, up $1.30 from last year, with February
>futures 10 cents higher.  Most farmers are looking at a net of $150-$250
>per acre, depending on yields.  That will pay the mortgage.

Currently UK soft is worth little more than 55UKP/T (say $US88/T) ex
farm.

Under UK situations this absolutely doesn't pay for most arable farms.

In real terms it's about 1/15th of what we got 30 years ago.

--
Oz
This post is worth absolutely nothing and is probably fallacious.
Note: soon (maybe already) only posts via despammed.com will be accepted.

Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.182bb5134c8b6f7198a245@news.earthlink.net...
> In article <apsb1u$idr$1...@newsg2.svr.pol.co.uk>,
j...@freeserve.spam.co.uk
> writes:
>
> > if it needs wheat so badly why on earth is it so cheap.
>
> What do you want, Jim?  I just looked up the Portland prices.  #1 hard
> red winter wheat is bid $5.45, twice what it was a couple years ago,
and
> soft white is around $4.65, up $1.30 from last year, with February
> futures 10 cents higher.  Most farmers are looking at a net of
$150-$250
> per acre, depending on yields.  That will pay the mortgage.

in UK wheat is �55 per tonne or there abouts which is $2.25 a bushel.


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

     'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'

>
> --
> http://home.teleport.com/~larryc

On Thu, 31 Oct 2002 21:59:22 GMT, Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com>
wrote:

>The agricultural press here in the USA is very impressed with this year's
>wheat crop in the Ukraine.  Harvesting the largest crop in history
>indicates that Ukrainian agriculture <..>

Afaik, the 2002 Ukraine wheat production 2002, although very good, is
not the largest in history. According to forecasts, which must now be
pretty solid, the 2002 production is smaller  than the production in
2001, and they are both in turn smaller than the production in 1993.

In article <KRAds7AK...@btopenworld.com>, aco...@btopenworld.com
writes:
> Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com> writes

> >What do you want, Jim?  I just looked up the Portland prices.  #1 hard
> >red winter wheat is bid $5.45, twice what it was a couple years ago, and
> >soft white is around $4.65, up $1.30 from last year, with February
> >futures 10 cents higher.  Most farmers are looking at a net of $150-$250
> >per acre, depending on yields.  That will pay the mortgage.

> Currently UK soft is worth little more than 55UKP/T (say $US88/T) ex
> farm.

Just think, with the switch to the Euro, the rest of the world will
actually be able to figure out how much something costs in Britain.

> Under UK situations this absolutely doesn't pay for most arable farms.

> In real terms it's about 1/15th of what we got 30 years ago.

I don't understand that at all.  Portland prices are export bids and
carry no subsidy, so what you are looking at is what international buyers
are willing to pay for wheat.  Inland producing areas barge grain down
the Columbia and blow it onto grain freighters bound for the Far East.
Prices bid are minimum rail car lots, 100 metric tons.

Maybe you are too far from export markets, but I would think grain
freighters could make it through the Suez.  Really deep draft ships can't
make it to Portland either.  The river channel limits them to a 43
foot draft.  Even with higher shipping costs, I can't see it adding up to
anywhere near $2 a bushel.  We should be talking pennies.  Your prices in
Britain should be almost identical to Chicago prices, and maybe even a
little higher.

--
http://home.teleport.com/~larryc

"Yuriy.Alatortsev" <Yuriy.A...@marsh.kiev.ua> wrote in message
news:apra71$151v$1@news.kiev.sovam.com...
> What do you mean?
>
> "gunnar" <gunnar@no.spam> �������/�������� � �������� ���������:
> news:pan.2002.10.29.22.37.54.567695.1185@no.spam...
> > On Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:45:29 +0100, Larry Caldwell wrote:
> >
> >  The Ukraine had a bumper crop of wheat this year, and the wheat
> > > shortage is going to do wonders for their economy.
> > >
> > Unfortunately there are places on this planet where this kind of logic
> doesn't
> > apply!

Congratulations. I would watch the world conditions carefully and forward
contract part of it if the world is shaping up to make a good crop unless
you harvest very early. Or it is this years spring wheat.

Oklahoma Hard red winter wheat conditions are looking good with good rains
in the fall seasonal temperatures and wet weather preventing many of the
lazy early planter a being forced to work the ground a extra time and get
the late weeds and will have a better crop. If the rest of the season is
good.

Your country sorely needs a good crop to reinforce your infrastructure,
repair and replace machinery and buy necessary items. May you have two or
two or three good crops in a row at a decent price. Some one has to take a
hit for it to happen. The EU is bitching about over production three hail
storms in row should shut their yap.

You can hurt me in the market. bad. No matter what I can do I can raise
wheat cohesively with you except as a pasture crop for cattle with a side
crop of wheat in dry area  of one meter a year of rain and the wheat as a by
product of beef. and that only works from 35 28 degrees north and 90 to 105
west That is very small aria .
--
Gordon

 Couger
Stillwater, OK
www.couger.com/gcouger

Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.182c7d1fc6fc6e9898a24a@news.earthlink.net...
> In article <KRAds7AK...@btopenworld.com>, aco...@btopenworld.com
> writes:
> > Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com> writes
>
> > >What do you want, Jim?  I just looked up the Portland prices.  #1
hard
> > >red winter wheat is bid $5.45, twice what it was a couple years
ago, and
> > >soft white is around $4.65, up $1.30 from last year, with February
> > >futures 10 cents higher.  Most farmers are looking at a net of
$150-$250
> > >per acre, depending on yields.  That will pay the mortgage.
>
> > Currently UK soft is worth little more than 55UKP/T (say $US88/T) ex
> > farm.
>
> Just think, with the switch to the Euro, the rest of the world will
> actually be able to figure out how much something costs in Britain.

the rest of the world can now

>
> > Under UK situations this absolutely doesn't pay for most arable
farms.
>
> > In real terms it's about 1/15th of what we got 30 years ago.
>
> I don't understand that at all.  Portland prices are export bids and
> carry no subsidy, so what you are looking at is what international
buyers
> are willing to pay for wheat.  Inland producing areas barge grain down
> the Columbia and blow it onto grain freighters bound for the Far East.
> Prices bid are minimum rail car lots, 100 metric tons.
>
> Maybe you are too far from export markets, but I would think grain
> freighters could make it through the Suez.  Really deep draft ships
can't
> make it to Portland either.  The river channel limits them to a 43
> foot draft.  Even with higher shipping costs, I can't see it adding up
to
> anywhere near $2 a bushel.  We should be talking pennies.  Your prices
in
> Britain should be almost identical to Chicago prices, and maybe even a
> little higher.
>

no, because US prices are higher at the moment because you haven't got
much wheat to export. You also keep out Ukranian wheat because of
phyto-sanitary regulations so do not face competition in your own
market.
UK export markets were the countries of the North African coast who now
buy mainly Ukranian wheat, as indeed are Spain which was one of the UKs
major customers last year.
We have to compete on the world market with Ukranian wheat which means
that our price is so low it looks like we will export up to 200,000
tonnes of feed wheat to the US this year.


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

     'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'

> --
> http://home.teleport.com/~larryc

"Jim Webster" <j...@freeserve.spam.co.uk> wrote in message
news:apvukf$fsl$1@news7.svr.pol.co.uk...
>
> Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.182c7d1fc6fc6e9898a24a@news.earthlink.net...
> > In article <KRAds7AK...@btopenworld.com>, aco...@btopenworld.com
> > writes:
> > > Larry Caldwell <lar...@teleport.com> writes
> >
> > > >What do you want, Jim?  I just looked up the Portland prices.  #1
> hard
> > > >red winter wheat is bid $5.45, twice what it was a couple years
> ago, and
> > > >soft white is around $4.65, up $1.30 from last year, with February
> > > >futures 10 cents higher.  Most farmers are looking at a net of
> $150-$250
> > > >per acre, depending on yields.  That will pay the mortgage.
> >
> > > Currently UK soft is worth little more than 55UKP/T (say $US88/T) ex
> > > farm.
> >
> > Just think, with the switch to the Euro, the rest of the world will
> > actually be able to figure out how much something costs in Britain.
>
> the rest of the world can now
>
> >
> > > Under UK situations this absolutely doesn't pay for most arable
> farms.
> >
> > > In real terms it's about 1/15th of what we got 30 years ago.
> >
> > I don't understand that at all.  Portland prices are export bids and
> > carry no subsidy, so what you are looking at is what international
> buyers
> > are willing to pay for wheat.  Inland producing areas barge grain down
> > the Columbia and blow it onto grain freighters bound for the Far East.
> > Prices bid are minimum rail car lots, 100 metric tons.
> >
> > Maybe you are too far from export markets, but I would think grain
> > freighters could make it through the Suez.  Really deep draft ships
> can't
> > make it to Portland either.  The river channel limits them to a 43
> > foot draft.  Even with higher shipping costs, I can't see it adding up
> to
> > anywhere near $2 a bushel.  We should be talking pennies.  Your prices
> in
> > Britain should be almost identical to Chicago prices, and maybe even a
> > little higher.
> >
>
> no, because US prices are higher at the moment because you haven't got
> much wheat to export. You also keep out Ukranian wheat because of
> phyto-sanitary regulations so do not face competition in your own
> market.
> UK export markets were the countries of the North African coast who now
> buy mainly Ukranian wheat, as indeed are Spain which was one of the UKs
> major customers last year.
> We have to compete on the world market with Ukranian wheat which means
> that our price is so low it looks like we will export up to 200,000
> tonnes of feed wheat to the US this year.
>
Talk about taking coal to New Castle. Sell into our wheat feed market? I
suppose there is a better feed wheat market some where in the country than
around here. But here the only wheat that goes for wheat is junk we can't
sell for human consumption. But we don't have any poultry. It is too hot in
the summer. Regular temperatures of 110 f or 43 C cause too much death loss.
The hottest I ever saw was 122f or 50C

I am sure that the poultry industry buys a good deal of wheat for feed and
if the price is right hog farmers will too.

The prices for the rest of the crop year for feed wheat should be better.
Corn prices seem to be good as well. I haven't seen a quote for feed wheat.

I have never thought about what the weakening dollar does to you as an
exporter. Since the FED had to replace the water cooling system on the money
printing machine with liquid nitrogen after thing went to pot over here the
have greatly increased the money supply.

Most every one I talk to is  holding wheat for higher prices and the way
corn prices are acting they must be doing the same there as well.

Gordon

Gordon Couger <gco...@NOSPAMprovalue.net> wrote in message
news:492x9.16115$8j1.603643@newsfeed.slurp.net...
> > no, because US prices are higher at the moment because you haven't
got
> > much wheat to export. You also keep out Ukranian wheat because of
> > phyto-sanitary regulations so do not face competition in your own
> > market.
> > UK export markets were the countries of the North African coast who
now
> > buy mainly Ukranian wheat, as indeed are Spain which was one of the
UKs
> > major customers last year.
> > We have to compete on the world market with Ukranian wheat which
means
> > that our price is so low it looks like we will export up to 200,000
> > tonnes of feed wheat to the US this year.
> >
> Talk about taking coal to New Castle. Sell into our wheat feed market?
I
> suppose there is a better feed wheat market some where in the country
than
> around here. But here the only wheat that goes for wheat is junk we
can't
> sell for human consumption. But we don't have any poultry. It is too
hot in
> the summer. Regular temperatures of 110 f or 43 C cause too much death
loss.
> The hottest I ever saw was 122f or 50C
>
> I am sure that the poultry industry buys a good deal of wheat for feed
and
> if the price is right hog farmers will too.
>
> The prices for the rest of the crop year for feed wheat should be
better.
> Corn prices seem to be good as well. I haven't seen a quote for feed
wheat.
>

apparently UK feed wheat is replacing Maize in the diet of hens

> I have never thought about what the weakening dollar does to you as an
> exporter. Since the FED had to replace the water cooling system on the
money
> printing machine with liquid nitrogen after thing went to pot over
here the
> have greatly increased the money supply.
>
> Most every one I talk to is  holding wheat for higher prices and the
way
> corn prices are acting they must be doing the same there as well.

I don't know. If you have a half decent crop next year, or have any
grain to get rid of, then the price will probably crash through the
bottom.


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

     'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'

>
> Gordon
>
>

"Jim Webster" <j...@freeserve.spam.co.uk> wrote in message
news:aq3vfb$kau$1@newsg3.svr.pol.co.uk...
>
> Gordon Couger <gco...@NOSPAMprovalue.net> wrote in message
> news:492x9.16115$8j1.603643@newsfeed.slurp.net...
> > > no, because US prices are higher at the moment because you haven't
> got
> > > much wheat to export. You also keep out Ukranian wheat because of
> > > phyto-sanitary regulations so do not face competition in your own
> > > market.
> > > UK export markets were the countries of the North African coast who
> now
> > > buy mainly Ukranian wheat, as indeed are Spain which was one of the
> UKs
> > > major customers last year.
> > > We have to compete on the world market with Ukranian wheat which
> means
> > > that our price is so low it looks like we will export up to 200,000
> > > tonnes of feed wheat to the US this year.
> > >
> > Talk about taking coal to New Castle. Sell into our wheat feed market?
> I
> > suppose there is a better feed wheat market some where in the country
> than
> > around here. But here the only wheat that goes for wheat is junk we
> can't
> > sell for human consumption. But we don't have any poultry. It is too
> hot in
> > the summer. Regular temperatures of 110 f or 43 C cause too much death
> loss.
> > The hottest I ever saw was 122f or 50C
> >
> > I am sure that the poultry industry buys a good deal of wheat for feed
> and
> > if the price is right hog farmers will too.
> >
> > The prices for the rest of the crop year for feed wheat should be
> better.
> > Corn prices seem to be good as well. I haven't seen a quote for feed
> wheat.
> >
>
> apparently UK feed wheat is replacing Maize in the diet of hens
>
> > I have never thought about what the weakening dollar does to you as an
> > exporter. Since the FED had to replace the water cooling system on the
> money
> > printing machine with liquid nitrogen after thing went to pot over
> here the
> > have greatly increased the money supply.
> >
> > Most every one I talk to is  holding wheat for higher prices and the
> way
> > corn prices are acting they must be doing the same there as well.
>
> I don't know. If you have a half decent crop next year, or have any
> grain to get rid of, then the price will probably crash through the
> bottom.
>
The surplus that was dragging down the world is drawn down and the southern
hemisphere is short. We will have to make a hell of a crop to crash the
prices. But good conditions, and putting a crop in right for a change could
make a real difference. You best hope that you can keep Round Up ready wheat
off the market. It will make a big difference in the yield of the farmers
that raise wheat primarily for pasture and the wheat is a by product. Most
of them are covered up with cheat and there is no herbicide for it. This
year at home we only got in half the wheat before it started raining before
it was cool enough for the cheat to come up. If they can get it in this
month they are set for top yields instead of max pasture.

Even at these prices wheat is worth as much as pasture as it is as grain.

The American way of farming is not good for anyone that competes with us.

From a land lords point of view I have to make my land attractive enough to
get good crop share renters. That's not too hard to do if you realize that I
make money mostly on gross sales and he makes his only on net profit and not
get greedy.

After the experience with drip in west Texas I am looking at doing something
similar with a center pivot on my dad's place. He's 94 and depressed about
income. It's going to be mine an my brother soon anyway and the water is
only 40 feet deep. Customs are a lot different on landlords putting in
irrigation equipment in west Texas than they are in southwest Oklahoma but
the pay is the same or better because it costs a lot less to do. We had to
drill a half dozen 150 foot wells in Texas I can drill a lot of 40 footers
to feed a used center pivot. In Texas a lot of the landlord own the
irrigation equipment but in Oklahoma almost none do. I don't care how big a
wad my neighbor panties get in if do things different if it makes me money.

That does not produce the right response to a falling market. Since I make
my money on a share of the gross sales less the same share of the fertilizer
and spraying and very few other expenses investing money to double or triple
production makes sense in face of falling prices. But it the only sensible
course to me to maximize my profits. If my government won't regulate
production I am not going to be a fool and not stick my head in the trough
as deep as I can.

It appears to me that the EU and UK have a much more difficult time finding
ways to do that because you already are producing pretty much all the land
is capable of, you can't utilize bigger machinery very well and the
government has limited a great many cost cutting measures we use everyday
and added a whole slew of costly measures of their own. Also the movement is
trying to keep you from increasing production.

You can't put in irrigation and increase productively close to an order of
magnitude like my wife did in Texas. Of course that only works for a while
until everybody does it. It won't work that good on dad's it will tipple his
production but it make it a lot  surer pay day. With irrigation we still
have most of the advantages of a dry area but a lot better yields.

Like I said on a mail list in India it is in my personal best interest if no
one else adopts GM crops and all of the EU goes organic in the short run. In
the long run I don't think having India falling behind in agriculture self
sufficiency and having atomic weapons is in anyone's best interest. They
don't need much excuse to start a war over there.
--
Gordon

Gordon Couger
Stillwater, OK
www.couger.com/gcouger

> Maybe you are too far from export markets, but I would think grain
> freighters could make it through the Suez.  Really deep draft ships can't
> make it to Portland either.  The river channel limits them to a 43
> foot draft.  Even with higher shipping costs, I can't see it adding up to
> anywhere near $2 a bushel.  We should be talking pennies.  Your prices in
> Britain should be almost identical to Chicago prices, and maybe even a
> little higher.

Grain ships loading at Portland - USDA


2002-11-04 19:55:26 GMT (Reuters)

PORTLAND, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The Portland Merchant's Exchange reported a
total of seven grain ships loading at Portland. Four ships were loading,
three were waiting to load.